국내 최대 기계 및 로봇 연구정보

기술보고서

기술보고서 게시판 내용
타이틀	Launch Collison Probability
저자	Gary Bollenbacher and James D. Guptill
Keyword	Launch; Cassini; Probability; Collision; Space debris
URL	http://gltrs.grc.nasa.gov/reports/1999/TP-1999-208852.pdf
보고서번호	NASA TP-1999-208852
발행년도	1999
출처	NASA Glenn Research Center
ABSTRACT	This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10 000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. The impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.